Voter behavior has been studied in-depth for as long the institution of voting has existed. Theories abound regarding how and why individuals vote the way they do.
There are single-issue voters- people who vote based solely on one issue that they particularly identify with- as well as people who are tribal with regards to a single party and vote for whoever that party nominates.
It’s broadly known that people vote for candidates who represent their interests- human beings respond to incentives, so they vote for whomever it is that they’re incentivized to vote for. This might manifest itself in a liberal voting for someone who is pro-choice and promises to protect the environment. A conservative might opt for someone who wants to reduce federal spending and protect the Second Amendment.
An often neglected aspect of voter behavior, however, is the idea that people vote based on who they are socially incentivized to vote for.
We all exist within the contexts of our communities, our tribes, and most of us follow the herd. People typically vote in accordance with their family and their friends. To belong to a community and to vote against the group’s preferred candidate is to be a traitor; one might call this “dinner-party politics.”
I think of someone in a liberal area whose friends all support Vice President Kamala Harris. If someone at a theoretical dinner party expressed discontent with the Democratic nominee, they would draw ire from their friends and subject themselves to mass social scrutiny. If they told the crowd that they were planning to vote for the ever-controversial Robert F. Kennedy Jr.- prior to his dropping out, of course- their friends would probably laugh at them. If they said that they were planning on voting for former President Donald Trump, they’d probably get kicked out.
Given our country’s divided, partisan nature, most people vote for the same party every election cycle. That’s typically aided by the fact that everyone they associate with will, too.
Americans vote for the candidate who represents their interests, yes, but that manifests itself in actual policy proposals far less often than we realize. People have their opinions, certainly, but following folks’ social incentives may yield a broader understanding of voter behavior.
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